The Read
Mid-range valuation, coins leaving exchanges · 37 days in state, since 2026-08-19
Drivers
- MVRV1.5773 ↓ · 42nd pct
MVRV compares BTC's market cap to its realized cap (the value of every coin priced at when it last moved on-chain). It approximates the average cost basis of all holders - a rough read on how much unrealized profit or loss the market as a whole is sitting on.
Receipt
MVRV compares BTC's market cap to its realized cap (the value of every coin priced at when it last moved on-chain). It approximates the average cost basis of all holders - a rough read on how much unrealized profit or loss the market as a whole is sitting on.
- Source
- Coin Metrics on-chain
- Fetched
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 (stale)
- Net exchange flow (30d)-71,177.523 ↓
Inflow minus outflow. Positive means more BTC moved onto exchanges than off them (readier to sell); negative means the reverse (more likely held or moved to cold storage). A trend across many days is more informative than any single day's reading.
Receipt
Inflow minus outflow. Positive means more BTC moved onto exchanges than off them (readier to sell); negative means the reverse (more likely held or moved to cold storage). A trend across many days is more informative than any single day's reading.
- Source
- Coin Metrics on-chain
- Fetched
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 (stale)
- Exchange reserve Δ (90d)43,263.09 ↑
A running total of BTC sitting in known exchange wallets, tracked over time. A declining reserve means, all else equal, less BTC is immediately available for sale on exchanges.
Receipt
A running total of BTC sitting in known exchange wallets, tracked over time. A declining reserve means, all else equal, less BTC is immediately available for sale on exchanges.
- Source
- Coin Metrics on-chain
- Fetched
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 (stale)
- Realized volatility (30d)0.4399 ↓ · 29th pct
Standard deviation of daily returns, annualized. A high realized-volatility regime doesn't predict direction, only that recent price swings have been unusually large or small relative to history.
Receipt
Standard deviation of daily returns, annualized. A high realized-volatility regime doesn't predict direction, only that recent price swings have been unusually large or small relative to history.
- Source
- Coin Metrics on-chain
- Fetched
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 (stale)
Base rates
| Horizon | Median | Q1 / Q3 | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | +5.5% | -1.7% / +11.0% | -13.6% |
| 90d | +2.3% | -14.7% / +35.7% | -31.6% |
| 180d | -3.0% | -30.5% / +38.6% | -47.8% |
Every prior period (25)
- 2020-08-15: -10.1% at 30d
- 2021-08-17: +6.9% at 30d
- 2021-09-07: +14.8% at 30d
- 2021-11-22: -13.6% at 30d
- 2022-01-27: +5.5% at 30d
- 2022-02-07: -4.3% at 30d
- 2023-06-10: +17.5% at 30d
- 2023-08-14: -10.8% at 30d
- 2023-10-18: +29.1% at 30d
- 2023-11-28: +12.8% at 30d
- 2024-02-21: +22.7% at 30d
- 2024-04-15: +4.6% at 30d
- 2024-09-11: +8.8% at 30d
- 2024-10-25: +47.9% at 30d
- 2025-02-05: -10.4% at 30d
- 2025-03-27: +8.6% at 30d
- 2025-06-02: +2.9% at 30d
- 2025-06-12: +10.7% at 30d
- 2025-08-15: -1.6% at 30d
- 2025-08-24: -1.3% at 30d
- 2025-09-03: +9.5% at 30d
- 2025-11-18: -8.0% at 30d
- 2025-12-04: -1.7% at 30d
- 2026-03-11: +3.8% at 30d
- 2026-04-07: +11.0% at 30d
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
Conditioned on: core state (valuation, flows, leverage, halving position); sentiment and short-history modifiers excluded.
Description of the past, not a forecast.
Modules
Valuation
- band
- mid-range
- mvrv
- 1.5773
- puell_multiple
- 1.0288809149029694
- mvrv_percentile
- 41.87383730762726
- realized_cap_usd
- 1074766960136.4928
Flows
- direction
- accumulating
- exchange_reserve_btc
- 2690688.98252485
- net_exchange_flow_30d_btc
- -71177.52303493998
- exchange_reserve_change_90d_btc
- 43263.08998672012
- etf_net_flow
- {"latest_usd":346977216.17,"sum_30d_usd":5183352764.89}
Leverage
- tier
- low
- realized_volatility_30d
- 0.43986345736479465
- realized_volatility_percentile
- 29.013079667063018
Cycle
- phase
- mid
- cycle_number
- 4
- days_since_halving
- 888
- next_halving_is_estimate
- true
- estimated_cycle_progress_pct
- 60.90534979423868
Sentiment
- value
- 71
- trend_30d
- 6
- divergence
- n/a
- percentile
- 80.91917591125198
Macro · Fed funds 3.63%; 2s10s +0.26%; DXY 119.5; 10y real yield 2.76%
- timestamp
- 2026-09-25T06:30:25.979782+00:00
- m2_supply_billions
- 23342.8
- fed_funds_rate_pct
- 3.63
- treasury_2y_pct
- 4.85
- treasury_10y_pct
- 5.11
- spread_2s10s_pct
- 0.26
- dxy
- 119.5133
- real_yield_10y_pct
- 2.76
- hy_credit_spread_pct
- 2.73
- gold_price_usd
- 4314.3
What changed
- BTC: -0.6%
- MSTR: -3.4%
- mNAV premium/discount: premium to discount
Today's narrative
Bitcoin's price sits at a modest 1.58 times what holders paid on average (a measure called MVRV), a level that in past cycles has shown up in the middle stretches of a rally rather than at blow-off tops. About 10,057 coins left exchanges on net, and outflows like that have historically lined up with people moving bitcoin into long-term storage rather than preparing to sell. Sentiment reads 71 on the Fear & Greed index, putting it in Greed territory, while the cost of holding leveraged long positions is only barely positive, suggesting speculative appetite is present but not stretched. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in roughly 715 million dollars on the latest day, a solid haul, and MicroStrategy's shares changed hands at about 97 cents on the dollar of its bitcoin holdings, a slight discount to fair value.
Next dated events
- 2026-09-25 · BTC Options Expiry - 180,840 contracts open interest
- 2026-09-25 · BTC Options Expiry - 181,225 contracts open interest
- 2026-09-25 · BTC Options Expiry - 181,228 contracts open interest
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