The Read
No confirmed state yet - the classifier has not produced a reading.
Drivers
No driver data yet.
Base rates
No confirmed state yet to compare against - base rates need a classified regime.
Modules
Valuation · missing
Flows · missing
Leverage · missing
Cycle · missing
Sentiment · missing
Macro · Fed funds 3.63%; 2s10s +0.25%; DXY 119.5; 10y real yield 2.63%
- timestamp
- 2026-09-24T06:30:17.436001+00:00
- m2_supply_billions
- 23342.8
- fed_funds_rate_pct
- 3.63
- treasury_2y_pct
- 4.71
- treasury_10y_pct
- 4.96
- spread_2s10s_pct
- 0.25
- dxy
- 119.5133
- real_yield_10y_pct
- 2.63
- hy_credit_spread_pct
- 2.68
- gold_price_usd
- 4319.2
What changed
- BTC: -0.2%
- MSTR: -3.1%
- Funding rate sign: negative (shorts paying) to positive (longs paying)
- mNAV premium/discount: premium to discount
Today's narrative
Bitcoin's price sits at a modest 1.58 times what holders paid on average (a measure called MVRV), a level that in past cycles has shown up in the middle stretches of a rally rather than at blow-off tops. About 10,057 coins left exchanges on net, and outflows like that have historically lined up with people moving bitcoin into long-term storage rather than preparing to sell. Sentiment reads 71 on the Fear & Greed index, putting it in Greed territory, while the cost of holding leveraged long positions is only barely positive, suggesting speculative appetite is present but not stretched. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in roughly 715 million dollars on the latest day, a solid haul, and MicroStrategy's shares changed hands at about 97 cents on the dollar of its bitcoin holdings, a slight discount to fair value.
Next dated events
- 2026-09-25 · BTC Options Expiry - 134,474 contracts open interest
- 2026-09-25 · BTC Options Expiry - 185,022 contracts open interest
- 2026-09-25 · BTC Options Expiry - 158,884 contracts open interest
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